Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
