Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
