Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Fall Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The mean count of everyday murders per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new official figures. However, public safety specialists have warned that murder numbers may not signal improved countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen during these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum said, adding that last month the smallest number of homicides were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main components of the President's security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, security researchers warned that relying on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was similarly concerning because it may hide days when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.